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You can use 4 identical balls, 1 white, 3 black, 1 each time, then the probability of the first draw of the white ball is the probability sought, which is 1 4
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No, it's not made of paper, and even if it is made of paper, it can be straightened if it is flattened.
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Is the set of keys on the sofa yours?
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Generally not, if it happens to be the pointed end, it's hard to say.